Edited by: Jeslyn Chen | Graphic by: Evangeline Heilman
El Nino involves complex weather patterns and occurs as a result of changing ocean temperatures. How will this directly affect California in the months to come?
There is a high chance you have been hearing references being made to a “Super El Nino” this year. Unfortunately, this is not fake news; let’s talk about it.
What does it mean when people refer to El Nino? The origin of this name came from South American fishermen who noticed warmer-than-usual ocean temperatures that peaked in the month of December. This prompted them to name the phenomenon “El Nino de Navidad” which translates to “the Christmas kid” in English. The name is quite accurate. El Nino peaks in December, January, and February and is a result of warmer ocean temperatures in the Pacific that exacerbate our everyday weather conditions. Typically, trade winds push warm ocean currents away from South America towards Asia. When these trade winds weaken, the warm water is stagnant and stays by the west coast of North and South America. There is also La Nina, which involves the reverse circumstance of El Nino: the trade winds strengthen and push more warm water towards Asia, causing colder water upwelling on the west coast of the Americas. El Nino and La Nina episodes typically occur every two to seven years and can last anywhere from nine months to several years.
Additionally, El Nino has an important relationship with climate change. As global temperatures rise and reach record highs, there is also an observed increase in the frequency of El Nino events. This was discovered in a study assessing the effects of global warming on the frequency of El Nino. Furthermore, the process of El Nino creates a positive feedback loop with the carbon dioxide (CO2 ) levels in the atmosphere. Thanks to NASA’s Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2), these changes in CO2 were measured during the 2015-2016 El Nino (one of the most extreme El Ninos). This particular El Nino initially decreased CO2 levels in the Pacific Ocean from March to July of 2015 and then contributed to an increase during August of 2015. Therefore, increasing global temperatures contributes to how often El Nino events occur and at the same time, El Nino events contribute to increased CO2 levels. This creates an ongoing cycle because CO2 in the atmosphere perpetuates the climate change that is already contributing to these El Nino events.
Over the summer of 2026, we have already started to see the potentially strengthened El Nino with high temperatures in the Pacific. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, this year’s El Nino will fall into the “very strong” category and is projected to last until early 2027. Intriguingly enough, it is already stronger at this point in the year than ever before.
What does this mean for California specifically? Unfortunately, El Nino is not the most predictable weather event. For somewhere as vast as California, especially, there can be lots of variability in the months to come. For example, there was intense flooding in the El Nino of 1997-1998 but then the 2015-2016 El Nino brought a dry spell upon the state. Based on current readings and research, climate experts are expecting this year’s El Nino to be rainy and will likely involve flooding. Nevertheless, action is actively being taken to prepare for the extreme weather that is expected to hit. For example, California’s governor, Gavin Newsom, officially declared a state of emergency at the end of September. Since the peak of El Nino will not be observed until the winter, there is still time to utilize resources and equip for potential damages. As stated on the state of California’s official website, “It [the declared state of emergency] directs state agencies to begin protecting vulnerable communities, prepare roads and critical infrastructure, stage emergency supplies, and help local partners reduce flood, landslide, and coastal risks.”
El Nino is a result of and contributing factor to climate change that ultimately causes extreme weather. Meteorological effects as well as socio-economic effects can be observed; the extreme weather can cause food insecurity, infrastructure damage, and reparations. Becoming aware of this inevitable disaster may be discouraging, but it is the first step to ensure that measures are taken to prevent as much damage as possible and that helping hands reach all communities. To end off, here are some things you can do in your own home or community to prepare for the upcoming weather: sign up for emergency alerts, purchase sandbags, prepare a multi-day supply kit, and check gutters, windshield wipers, tires, and headlights.